上了最近一期的封面 汽车新闻我看到了一件令我震惊的事. It was a feature article containing an interesting interview with Scott Kunselman, Senior Vice President of Purchasing and Supplier Quality at 克莱斯勒集团. Kunselman说, “如果我能再造一辆车, 我愿意为一个角色多花几分钱吗? 绝对.“非常有趣。...

我曾经是一个买家, 30多年前, and still remember that the overwhelming daily concerns dealt with delivery and quality. 确定, 价格一直是一个因素, but it did not drive the daily concerns that affected the operations of the manufacturing plants.  当我读到这句话的时候, I was reminded about the business priority to maintain production and support surges in demand.

My first observation surrounded the issue of capacity dynamics within the iron castings market. Here's what we know: about one million tons were removed from the North American Iron Casting market during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009. 为这个数字提供一些背景, one million tons could produce 150 million brake rotors or 100 million differential carriers. 市场上有很多吨位. 和, based on industry demand and supply numbers from such services as Stratecast and Knight Wendling, there is not enough capacity in place today to support forecasted volumes.

Here's what's being said: the 汽车新闻 article spoke of increased North American capacity or "Factory frenzy" by the Japanese OEM's—in the automotive market, 但也有商用卡车, 建设, 农业OEM, 这意味着需求在增加, 再一次。, 而且还需要更多的铸铁产能.除了我们在行业出版物上读到的, we hear first-hand about the possible scenario that market dynamics will come to the rescue and add capacity.

Certainly some foundries have added capacity, including Waupaca. 我们重新启动了Etowah, 田纳西州, 2011年10月, 这就退回了200美元,000吨投入市场. We have heard that MTI is adding new equipment, as has Cifunsa in Mexico. 但即使有了这个宣布的新产能, 需求仍有可能超过供应, based on present knowledge of the iron foundry industry's capacity growth plans.Waupaca的客户了解这种产能动态, 并且已经有2年多了, 因为我们的合作关系. We have encouraged people throughout the industry to have strategic meetings with their foundry partners to thoroughly discuss this capacity situation, working to bolster new investments from both sides of the equation.

Building a "green-field" plant is not a quick fix—as the 汽车新闻 article identified, 相对于轮胎等资本密集型行业. 在许多方面，铸铁件也遵循同样的情况. 一个新工厂的设计通常需要一年的时间, 一年建成, 再过两到三年才能满负荷运转, 尤其是在效率层面上. 这意味着我们谈论的是4到5年的创业. So our industry should start discussing this challenge very quickly.

This type of planning and investment is not only needed in North America, but in all regions of the world—if the major industries reach forecasted growth, 无论在中国, 印度, 欧洲, 或南美洲.Thinking about the capacity dynamic almost always brings us back to pricing. 在80年代末和90年代, 延续到2000年初, 铸铁厂, 像许多制造商一样, 在定价问题上相互激烈竞争, 压低市场价格. This was coupled with the OEM demands for year-over-year price reductions, 进一步压低利润率.

The largest foundry in the North America market in 2000 was Intermet, and they no longer exist today.《威尼斯注册送38元》的文章中提到了这一点, 铸造厂等资本密集型产业, companies must be strongly profitable to encourage their investors to make the tough decision to build a new foundry at a cost of more than $100 million—depending on the number of molding lines and core equipment. The roadblock of investment size is compounded by the length of time required (4 to 5 years) to bring a new plant to efficient operation, 如前所述.

There has been much already said and written about the differences in investment decision-making by strategic owners of companies, 私募股权公司. Waupaca铸造了解这些所有权环境, 鉴于我们之前的所有者是一个战略所有者, 蒂森克虏伯, 现在的所有权归一家私募股权公司所有, KPS资本合伙人.

A company must earn an attractive profit and generate strong cash flows to encourage any investor today to make sizable capital investments, 目前是否有厂房扩建, 格林菲尔德, 或收购. While the article cites an improvement of operating profit before interest and taxes, the article did not elaborate whether current margins are sufficient to encourage an owner to make necessary capital growth investments.  The 汽车新闻 article referred to a recent Roland Berger study for the first six months of 2012 of the 50 publicly traded suppliers in North America.

While the article cites an improvement of operating profit before interest and taxes to 6% (from 5% a year earlier), the article did not elaborate on the idea that whether a 6% EBIT number is an attractive performance indicator to encourage an owner to make sizeable capital growth investments, 特别是在资本密集型产业. It's not easy to discuss openly the margins and cash flow needed to provide the attractive environment for significant capacity growth. 但是，这需要发生.

作为这些讨论的一个真实例子, some OEM purchasing managers have recently acknowledged to me that 铸铁厂 could get better margins in other industries, and most understood that in order to secure foundry capacity, OEM需要解决必要的定价问题. This type of strategic discussion about capacity and the required investments should span a 1-to-2-year period, 但也要包括10年或更长时间的前景.In summary, the capacity situation is a real, immediate concern within the iron foundry market.

挑战在于要诚实, 关于各种行业容量场景的公开对话, 双方对数量和相关能力的承诺, and open pricing issues that could prove a roadblock to capital growth commitments. The current situation can only be remedied with meaningful discussions and commitments.